What Goes Down Must Come Up

What Goes Down Must Come Up

When I last checked in via blog on 9/28/25, I had just lost my third session in a row. Fast forward two sessions, and last night marked my fifth straight loss. So I figured today would be as good a day as any to discuss that inevitable topic that all poker players deal with at one time or another, which is dealing with downswings.

I may sound like a broken record, but I think it's important to clarify that I am a recreational player. Even then, what works or applies to me may not even work or apply to other recreational players.

ANY poker player, amateur or professional, has been through a downswing if they've played long enough. The nature and length of a downswing can vary. Out of interest, I decided to look up the definition of "downswing":

a decline in economic, business, or other activity.

This begs the question of what constitutes a 'decline', so i looked that up too:

a gradual and continuous loss of strength, numbers, quality, or value.

That still leaves open a lot of interpretation as to what truly constitutes a downswing. For instance, there's no set criteria for how many sessions need to be played or how many of those need to be losing sessions or how much needs to be lost. But I think this brings up the most important notion of a downswing...it's subjective and personal. Downswings are emotional in nature. So if YOU think you're in a downswing, then that's all that really matters. 

That being said, there's also the other side of the coin...the obvious downswings that no one can dispute. For example, losing five sessions in a row!

WHAT CAUSES DOWNSWINGS?

Okay, we're in a downswing, but how did we get here? There are really only two possible reasons:

  1. Variance
  2. Poor Play

Many players, including myself, will use different terms to describe variance:

  • running bad
  • being card dead
  • constantly hitting coolers

But at the end of the day, these are all just ways to describe variance. And in many instances, what people are trying to describe as variance is really just bad play.

The important part here is trying to recognize which part of the downswing is due to variance and which is due to poor play. Because dealing with variance is just a matter of patience, while dealing with poor play requires more intentional action.

Okay, so we're in a downswing, whether subjective or objective, what do we do about it?

There are a few ways to both prepare for (proactive) and deal with (reactive) downswings.

BANKROLL MANAGEMENT

Generally, truly recreational players don't necessarily have to follow bankroll management. Because I'm playing poker as a hobby, for any given poker session, I can theoretically buy-in for whatever discretionary cash I have available at that particular point in time. If end up losing it, I can just wait until I have enough discretionary cash to buy-in again. While that is the way I operated for a long time, a couple of years ago I decided I wanted to follow proper bankroll management.

A lot of the guidance I've heard over the years is that you should have 20-30 buy ins as part of your bankroll. The very reason for this is to weather those downswings we've been talking about.

Even as a recreational player, a proper bankroll means that I am emotionally more prepared to deal with downswings knowing that I don't have to worry about having to wait until I build up more poker cash reserves. 

THE BEST BANKROLL GUIDANCE I EVER GOT

I've read a lot of poker material over the years. Granted, a lot of the stuff I have read is on what I would call the old-school fundamental poker theories (i.e. pre-GTO). One of my favorites is "Decide to Play Great Poker" by Annie Duke. In the book, Duke says the following when talking about stop losses and when to walk away from a losing session:

Don't lose more in this session than you can win back in the next    
As someone who majored in Psychology, this guidance has always resonated with me. I'll expand on Duke's point with a bit of my own artistic license. Let's say that you typically play $1/$3 with a $300 buy-in. Although your average winning session nets a $300 profit, on multiple occasions you've been able to net $600-$900 in profit. You feel comfortable that you can and will be able to repeat this outcome. Note that we're not talking about that one miraculous session.
Now let's say you have a losing $1/$3 session where you've lost $600. While the loss may sting, you KNOW that you are more than capable of winning that amount back in just ONE winning session. But let's say you bought in four times and find yourself leaving the poker room after a $1,200 loss. Although you've had sessions where you've won $1,200+, those are few and far between and it's unlikely your next session (or several) would get that type of result. So now you are stuck (pun intended) with the mental anguish of knowing that it is unlikely you will make that $1,200 deficit up in a single session. You've put yourself in a deeper emotional deficit. And the bigger that gap between what you've lost and what you can realistically make back up (in the same proportionate time frame), the worse that emotional deficit is.
Downswings are just an amplification of this. If you don't have the above guardrail in place and have now lost multiple $1,200 sessions, think of the emotional deficit you have now put yourself in. You may have lost three $1,200 sessions, but it could take six winning sessions (not taking into account any intervening losing sessions), just to make that back up!
WE WERE ON A BREAK
Sometimes we just need a mental reset. I know that poker vlogger @pokerbabbo just did this after experiencing his own downswing. Most of the time we just need to get out of our own head.
I don't think there is any right way to take a break or prescribed amount of time. Some players will focus on poker education during the break (i.e. training, reading etc.) while others will shut poker out completely. These breaks are about getting to a good mental spot, so whatever helps you do that is the right way. 
TAKING THE SMALL WINS (SILVER LININGS)
One of the things that helps me overcome downswings is appreciating even the small victories. For instance, even though I've lost five sessions in a row, I feel better knowing that all five sessions have each been for less than a full buy in. In other words, I know that I can make this back up with a few winning sessions. Find the victories where you can, even in losses, in whatever form you can, and this can help.
STAYING THE COURSE
It's easy and natural to want to over correct after a downswing and there's a delicate balance. It's one thing to want to try and plug leaks if you feel that your downswing is the result of bad play, but I think changing the way you are playing just for the sake of doing something different is a bad idea. And over correcting can take different forms. Some players may play more loose, while others more tight. This is why you truly need to understand the difference between variance and bad play. You need to know the problem to identify the proper solution.
HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF
If you've played long enough, you've been through a downswing and you've come out the other side. Unless you can identify a reason why this time is different, rely on that historical knowledge for comfort. Trust that this is just the same natural cycle that you've overcome before.

 

TIME TO PRACTICE WHAT I PREACH

I won't sit here and pretend that everything is peachy up in my head (as it relates to poker). I'm the type of person that hates ONE losing session, let alone five in a row. The more sessions I lose, I know the longer it will take me to make it back up. But because of what I've written above, particularly bankroll management, I'm much more prepared to deal with the anxiety that comes with a downswing. Of course, even my worst level of anxiety cannot compare to what a professional poker player must feel, and so I won't pretend to be able to appreciate how difficult downswings can be for someone dependent on poker income. But I still think that the tools for dealing with downswings can be used by everyone.

Unlike with gravity, when it comes to poker downswings, the rule is:

what goes down must come up.

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